Alright, let's talk about 2026. The soothsayers are out in force, painting pictures of resilience, transition, or disruption. But what's the *real* story, stripped of the usual consultant-speak? We're told that geo-economics will continue to dominate, with trade and finance weaponized for political ends. This isn't exactly news (hasn't it always been the case, to some extent?), but the *degree* of weaponization is what matters.
The big question mark hanging over everything is, of course, artificial intelligence. Can it offset the demographic slump and economic fragmentation that seem baked into the cake? The optimists point to US GDP growth, claiming 90% is fueled by AI investments (hardware, software, the whole shebang). Big Tech's promising to drop nearly $3 trillion on AI by 2030 – almost 10% of GDP. That's a hefty chunk of change.
But here's where my eyebrows start to arch. These "leveraged and circular financing structures"—cross-holdings between companies in the same sector—smell a little too much like the dot-com era. What happens if the returns don't materialize? These interdependencies could choke off the creative destruction process, protecting incumbents and stifling innovation. It's like building a house of cards and then hoping a gentle breeze won't knock it over.
France: The Next Domino to Fall?
The French Question: A Fiscal Time Bomb?
While everyone's focused on the AI hype, let's not forget the boring but crucial issue of government debt. The IMF is projecting US public debt to hit 143% of GDP by 2030, with deficits stuck above 7%. But the immediate worry is Europe, specifically France. Fiscal imbalance plus political instability is a cocktail that investors find hard to stomach. We're talking about a country where tax revenues exceed 50% of GDP, yet the primary deficit remains stubbornly high (above 3%).
The market's diagnosis is blunt: France is starting to look more like Italy than Spain or Portugal. The risk premiums are reflecting this, and ratings agencies are taking note. The nightmare scenario? The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and other safety nets get tested. It’s like watching a slow-motion train wreck, and the question isn't *if* but *when* it fully derails.
Adaptation: The New Buzzword (But Does It Mean Anything?)
Resilience and agility were the watchwords of the past five years, but now we're told we need "continuous adaptation." This means integrating change and continuity across operations, organization, and finance. It's about evolving *constantly*, not just reacting to crises. Companies that master this, we're told, will use disruption as fuel.
But let's be honest: "continuous adaptation" sounds a lot like corporate jargon for "we have no idea what's coming, but we need to sound proactive." The concept hinges on leaders pursuing both change and continuity simultaneously. Okay, but *how*?
The article I read suggests that companies with strong cultures are better at adapting. Apparently, a strong foundation creates the freedom to experiment and try new things. Psychological safety and shared values facilitate new ideas. I've looked at hundreds of these reports, and this is the part that I find genuinely puzzling. How do you *quantify* psychological safety? How do you measure shared values? These are the kinds of soft metrics that make hard-nosed analysts like me reach for the aspirin.
Then there’s the idea that continuously adaptive companies constantly reevaluate their business portfolios. They make acquisitions and divestitures at a higher rate than companies that are merely "reacting to disruption." According to the AlixPartners Disruption Index, nearly four out of five companies (79%—to be more exact, 78.9%) that drive disruption expect to make material acquisitions in the year ahead, compared to 45% for companies that react. Okay, but correlation doesn't equal causation. Maybe disruptive companies are just more aggressive in general.
The AI Hype Machine Keeps Chugging
The manufacturing sector, for instance, is banking on new incentives, the data center boom, and continued demand for semiconductors to drive investment and growth. A survey of over 500 manufacturers indicated that a larger pool of skilled US workers, a weaker dollar, lower corporate tax rates, regulatory reform, and additional tariffs could encourage reshoring to the United States. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act retained the corporate tax rate (21%) and made permanent other tax-saving provisions.
Data center growth is creating substantial demand. Startups focused on small modular reactors attracted $3.9 billion in funding in 2024—a tenfold increase from 2023. Semiconductor manufacturing investment is also likely to continue to grow. Companies have announced more than $500 billion in private sector commitments to revitalize the US chipmaking ecosystem. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act also increased the advanced manufacturing investment credit from 25% to 35%.
The supply chain is still a mess. At the 16th UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD16) in Geneva, ministers warned that fragile logistics networks are deepening inequality. Freight rates have become volatile, shipping routes are shifting, and 90% of the world’s active fleet still runs on conventional fuels. Uncertainty has become the highest tariff of all, and small island and landlocked developing countries are hit hardest. Freight costs raise inflation in small island states five times faster than the global average. It's as if the global economy is a patient with a chronic illness, and the supply chain is the circulatory system that keeps getting blocked. According to
Global supply chains under strain – ministers call for just and resilient transitions, ministers are calling for just and resilient transitions to address these issues.
Spain, for its part, is expecting a good growth outlook in 2026, driven by European Funds (NGEU), a demographic boost, accommodative financial conditions, and easing energy prices. The Spanish economy is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026.
Is "Continuous Adaptation" Just a Fancy Excuse for Panic?
So, where does that leave us? 2026 looks like a year of muddling through, with AI as the great unknown. The potential is there, but so are the risks. The fiscal situation in Europe, particularly France, is a ticking time bomb. And "continuous adaptation," while sounding good on paper, may just be a fancy way of saying that companies are scrambling to keep up. The numbers are there, but the signals are mixed.
The Illusion of Control
